16 replies to this topic

[Shirou]

That BP is helping to change our climate is something we already know by means of global warming. However now it turns out that the oil spill may actively disrupt the gulf stream this year, which results in us, Europe, to possibly have the coldest winter in 1000 years.

Conspiracy theorists have already jumped on it and stated that the gulf stream may be completely broken by BP's efforts and that Europe's climate will permanently fall cold (most of you will know Al Gore's greenland predictions relating to a Europe centered Ice Age). I think that's rather bullshit the oilspill was large but the gulf stream is too voluminous to be permantely disrupted by that. Here is the report from some italian physicists who made the most important assumptions here.

I took the time to evaluate the bold reports and found this one which makes a bit more scientific sense. It has maps that disprove the bold accusations of a permanently disrupted gulf stream. That doesn't meant the 'damage' to our winter hasn't been done because if the other ones in the italian report are genuine then we may have received quite a bit less heat than we should have in the past months.

If that ends up to be the case (it will never be proven of course, like everything in climate science) I'd like BP's address for my energy bill this winter.

Oh and a thank you for giving us our Elfstedentocht

[Chyros]

Hmmm. Last I heard, the oil spill was actually considerably less voluminous than people thought at first. Also, it may be chilly here atm, but it's not abnormally cold for a winter at all, and though the Netherlands is actually colder than Canada and Greenland atm, this is because there is a heat wave there. I remain skeptical.

[Ion Cannon!]

Theres so many factors that effect climate its very unlikely an oil spill would cause a major disruption. Weather as it is, is unpredictable, last year the UK had a really cold winter and so far we've had a pretty cold winter, I doubt thats due to the oil spill though.

Experts will tell you we don't have any comparison for the amount of CO2 humans have injected into the atmosphere, as a geologist I can tell you thats bullshit. While the change has never been quite so rapid, at numerous times in geological history the CO2 levels have been much higher.

Edited by Ion Cannon!, 14 December 2010 - 12:28.

[Shirou]

 Chyros, on 14 Dec 2010, 11:03, said:

Hmmm. Last I heard, the oil spill was actually considerably less voluminous than people thought at first. Also, it may be chilly here atm, but it's not abnormally cold for a winter at all, and though the Netherlands is actually colder than Canada and Greenland atm, this is because there is a heat wave there. I remain skeptical.

Its mainly that quite some climatologists are pointing at their predictions of a harsh winter and the internet has picked it up like the next new meme. It hasn't really been abnormally cold in the Netherlands although a -16 in the UK, surrounded by ocean, and half a meter of snow in France all in december does say something.

It'll definitely fall in the section of 'cold winters' if this keeps up. Its all pure speculation though.

I'd like not to turn this into a CO2-global warming discussion, as this is entirely something else.

Edited by Shirou, 14 December 2010 - 12:49.

[Alias]

I think the main problem caused by the spill is the damage to the ecosystem. That has far more long term repercussions.

[Camille]

well it IS damn cold here. but as for a permanent impact, i think that's somewhat exaggerated.

[Dauth]

Um guys, the cold weather in Europe is generally driven by high level atmospheric events. The last two cold events were caused by a blocking omega patter in the 500-1000hpa range of the atmosphere. The cause of that is generally from Rosby waves and if they could have been modified by the BP oil slick (I haven't the foggiest if it could be done) but they are hopefully understood.

A good weather prediction system is the upper level chart, for snow specifically the 528 line (the depth of the atmosphere between the pressure levels of 500 and 1000 hpa (mbar to the oldies)). You can see these systems moving in and sitting on Europe. A good site is netweather and their datacentre. I personally am a fan of the GFS forecasts and using the dropdown box to get the 500-1000hpa hgt.

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

Go amaze your friends with better than most national weather services at snow prediction.

[Shirou]

Since when did you became a weather expert Too bad that site's predictions are UK only, while they appear to have data that can apply to the whole of Europe. Looking at the spatial data is interesting enough though.

Edited by Shirou, 14 December 2010 - 19:50.

[Wizard]

 Shirou, on 14 Dec 2010, 19:23, said:

Since when did you became a weather expert

Since he started his PhD in weather patterns and their impact on global warming

[Shirou]

I see lol, that makes him pretty much the only person in this thread qualified to make statements on this subject xD

[Pav:3d]

Ooooh SNAP, walked right into that one Shirou

And coldest winter in 1000 years? Not been too bad so far...

[SquigPie]

 Pav:3d, on 15 Dec 2010, 0:56, said:

Ooooh SNAP, walked right into that one Shirou

And coldest winter in 1000 years? Not been too bad so far...

Meh, not the coldest in Denmark yet, abnormaly early yes, but according to my mother they had one 20 years ago where the temperature dropped to -24c in the night.

[Ghostrider]

As Chyros said, thankfully mother nature has been helping to make the BP oil spill go away. Certain bacteria at deep parts in the Gulf of Mexico have been feeding off of the oil since it's the most readily available carbon source, at a rate that has actually baffled scientists. While some of the chemicals still remain, ocean dispersion has also minimized some of the oil effects.

I really doubt that the oil spill will have any effect on the climate. As Alias said, the main effect will be the devastation of several ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico.

[Dauth]

Shirou check the larger scale plots, ones covering Europe would be a good start. 528 line = snow.

Does anyone know how the bacteria are doing on the oil at about 1km down?

[Chyros]

 Dauth, on 15 Dec 2010, 12:10, said:

Does anyone know how the bacteria are doing on the oil at about 1km down?

Most likely they'll be able to functionalise the hydrocarbons in it or use them directly for cellular fuel. It may even be more complicated with all kinds of functional group interconversions but with bacteria it's usually the simplest route that applies. I'm no biologist though.

[Sgt. Nuker]

 Alias, on 14 Dec 2010, 7:53, said:

I think the main problem caused by the spill is the damage to the ecosystem. That has far more long term repercussions.

^ This. Honestly, the immediate and long term effects to the ecosystem are more relevant and noticable than anything the BP spill may or may not have done to the climate.

[BeefJeRKy]

Last weekend, two storm fronts from Europe collided on this side of the Mediterranean and the amount of rain that normally falls in December fell in 40 hours in addition to winds of around 100-120 kph. Crazy weather especially considering the weekend before was at 27 degrees (compared to 12). We certainly needed it though

Also as Alias said, it's the biodiversity being harmed that will ultimately cause bigger problems. Sure the Gulf stream might have been weakened this year, but I doubt that this singular event has shifted enough to freeze Europe.